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Thucydides’s Trap (Previously published)

the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 289B

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Thucydides’s Trap (Previously published)

Forward

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, I found myself traveling to Hong Kong/China several times per year on business. Some 20 yeas later, my wife I and spent several weeks hiking in the Himalayas and Tibet, visiting Buddhist monasteries, and reaching Mount Everest base camp on the Tibetan side. These personal experiences led me to appreciate first hand the cultural differences between China and our Western culture.

The geopolitical implications of these differences and the political and economic ascendancy of China inform the troubling arguments advanced by Graham Allison in his outstanding new book Destined for War – Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

Professor Allison borrows from History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides conclusion that “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Thus, Thucydides’s Trap denotes the inevitable structural tensions in international relations that result when a rising power, such as China today, threatens to displace a ruling power-, such as the United States.

Dr. Allison, and his Thucydides’s Trap Project team at Harvard, identified 16 cases in the past five hundred years in which an ascending power challenged an established power. Of these 16 rivalries, 12 resulted in war. The United States and China represent the 17th case, and Dr. Allison’s research offers a clear lens for understanding the U.S.- China rivalry, and how to avoid the sparks that could ignite a military conflict.

Consider just a couple of examples cited in the book that attest as to China’s ascendancy. In two years, between 2011 and 2013, China produced and used more cement than the U.S. produced and used in the entire 20th century. Since 2007, 40 percent of all the economic growth of the world has taken place in China.

Both countries see themselves as exceptional, but ageless China, with no recorded birth, cultivates a cultural exceptionalism even greater than the infant United States. In Chinese, the word for China means “Middle Kingdom”. The reference is not to a place in-between other kingdoms, but to all that exists between heaven and earth.

The cultures differ and compete in other key values. The United States sees itself as “number one” and China sees itself as the center of the universe. Americans core value is freedom, for the Chinese it is order. We view government as a necessary evil, for the Chinese government is a necessary good. We are inclusive, they are exclusive. Our time horizon is now, for the Chinese it is infinity. Our form of government is a democratic republic; China is an authoritarian/totalitarian regime. We anchor government legitimacy in the will of the people; for the Chinese legitimacy emanates from performance. And, in the context of international relations, we aspire to an international order based on the rule of law. China aspires to an international order in which China rules in harmonious hierarchy.

Given the objective conditions and conflicting aspirations of the United States and China, it is going to take enlightened diplomacy and astute strategy to avoid Thucydides’s Trap. It is not simply a matter of developing a national friendship. After all, the Spartan king Archidamus II and Athens’ Pericles were personal friends, and that personal friendship did not prevent the destruction of both states in the Peloponnesian War.

In his history of the war, Thucydides immortalized realism in international relations in the Melian Dialogue: “You know as well as we do that right is a question that only has meaning in relations between equals in power. In the real world, the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.” This realpolitik understanding shapes the policies of China and the United States.

A military conflict between the United States and China may seem a remote possibility. But it would be foolish to discount Thucydides’s Trap and ignore conditions under which events, such as a Korean conflict, can escalate with unforeseeable and catastrophic consequences. International relations must journey in the arc of the possible. And, in that arc, we should never dismiss George Santayana’s aphorism: “Only the dead have seen the end of war.”

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José Azel, Ph.D.

José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Dr. Azel was a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security. He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media. He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers. In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru. They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary and throughout southern France. They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Most recently, they rafted for 17 days 220 miles in the Grand Canyon.

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them.

Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel

José Azel’s writings are touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone who wishes to understand why countries do, or do not, progress will find in this book the best explanations. And, from these readings emerge numerous inferences: How and why do the good intentions of leftist collectivism lead countries to hell? Why is liberty not a sub product of prosperity, but rather one of its causes?

If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would also recommend its reading to all politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With his writings Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: Azel brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous,

Carlos Alberto Montaner
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Los escritos de José Azel están tocados por la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquiera que desee entender por qué los países progresan, o no, encontrará en este libro las mejores explicaciones. De estas lecturas surgen numerosas inferencias: ¿Cómo y por qué las buenas intenciones del colectivismo de izquierda llevan a los países al infierno? ¿Por qué la libertad no es un subproducto de la prosperidad, sino una de sus causas?

Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería de obligada lectura de todos los estudiantes universitarios, pero además, le recomendaría su lectura a todos los políticos, periodistas y policy makers. Con sus escritos Azel logra lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo.

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"Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. Stupendous"

Carlos Alberto Montaner

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"Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Estupendo."

Carlos Alberto Montaner

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In Reflections on Freedom, José Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers. Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives. They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.

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En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba. En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en breves artículos de carácter periodístico.

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Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.

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Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.

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